The Art of Speculation


That title belongs to a book written by a man I met online and by telephone, for the first time, over ten years ago. His “pen name” is Arthur Fixed and the full title of the book is “The Art of Speculation During Civil War” with the byline; “Sun Tsu meets Jesse Livermore” but I know the old man (he’s 72) as Alex.

Alex graduated from Harvard in 1964, with a PhD in Law. It’s important to note that he was an immigrant to the U.S, so English was a new language for him as well, added to that, back in those days the policy was that 33% of Harvard students (each year) did NOT pass (nowadays almost everyone makes the grade). Getting a Harvard degree is still a major accomplishment, but in 1964 to come-out, while in your mid-twenties, with a PhD, is a monumental achievement. Alex would prove again and again that he was an over-achiever. This is an excellent guide I’ve read so far.

Harvard was just the start of what would become an illustrious and highly successful, albeit very diverse career, spanning over five decades. At one point in his journey Alex developed an interest in economics and the stock market. Like everything else with Alex, if there was a point to doing something, then there was a point to over-doing-it, he immersed himself in the academics of money, finance, and stock market trading. What made his approach slightly different was his strict belief in the teachings of the Austrian school of economics by Ludwig Von Mises and even more influenced in his thinking by Mises protégé Murray Rothbard with his famous tome called “Man, Economy and State”.

For sure Alex was not the first trader to have a penchant for Mises and Rothbard, truly it’s probably more the norm, for anyone involved with the stock market to have a strong belief in the Austrian economic doctrine, but not like Alex. This ideology was much more than just ideas to Alex, this was the code for economic law. As clear as physics and as predictable as chemistry. According to him, the way to understand the stock market scientifically is to apply the principles of economic law, create multiple methods of observation and analysis. Then using reason and logic, based on having enough data from observation, to then formulate assumptions, that which when acted upon in the correct manner, will create the same results (in similar market situations), over and over again.

Alex’s hypothesis is that when economic law is applied to the markets, the end-result is as obvious as gravity.

In 1987 Alex had the opportunity to apply his theory and methods, against a market that suffered a full year of decline. Starting with a trading account of $10,000 USD he began his speculation, one year later he had grown the account to $5.5M. The critical factor was the size of the correction in the market because that is the crux of understanding the economic law as it relates to stock prices. See, according to Rothbard, in the aspects of his book that refer to “man”, that all value is subjective and prices of everything will rise and fall, knowing what to do about it and when is the key and that’s where Alex embellished upon Mises and Rothbard to push the science beyond where it stopped.

The year 2016, according to Alex and personified by Arthur Fixed in the “Art of Speculation During Civil War”, has all the hallmarks of a market cycle where the subjective value of the stock market changes (or corrects), as well as the subjective values of all currencies and commodities. To set-up the circumstance, where economic law mimics gravity and when specific option trading methods are applied, a very predictable outcome is recreated, again and again, until the correction is over.

Alex invited me to join him and learn how to make a fortune on speculation by trading options. The account was opened months ago but we had to wait until the science (observation and measurement) told us to start. We’re on!

siliconpalms vlog

Aaron A Day - siliconpalms vblog

Aaron A Day - siliconpalms vblogInspire and motivate self-improvement and harm-reduction. The siliconpalms vlog is a positive attitude outlet, with the objective to create a good vibe every day and to provide value to anyone who watches and listens to the meaningful message.

Combat the blues and overcome lethargy by changing the way you think about the world. Improve your lifestyle and defeat dystopia by reducing your consumption of substances, put down that bong and pick-up a pen. Design your own movie script, starring you, as the ultimate escape-artist. Escape from the Drudge Report, escape from Facebook and escape from whatever might be holding you back and hanging you up.

One of the reasons I started the siliconpalms vlog was to document my own transformation. You see; I found myself in a challenging predicament, by the age of 55, something I never expected or planned, something that started-out so innocently and over time grew into a bigger and bigger problem, until I was carrying a monkey on my back. Yep, you guessed it, I woke-up one day I knew I’d become an escape artist with an addiction to fun, that’s why one of the themes of the siliconpalms vlog is good vibrations, which is my method for putting negative thinking, in the rear-view mirror.

This is a new and exciting chapter in my life. I’m making something positive out of something negative and it’s my sincere hope that I’ll inspire and motivate someone to take action and stand in their power. Face yourself and make a decision to make the lifestyle changes necessary to get the monkey off your back, whatever it may be.

My story is compelling because I have a unique perspective and I live in one of the most vibrant and exciting cities in the world, Sao Paulo, Brazil. I’m a people-person and have friends all over the world, not virtual friends, real-world, real people friends but what makes the story interesting is the day-to-day interactions with regular folks, everywhere I go. It’s all about love.

Peace Revolution

Corcovado head Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - Peace Revolution

Corcovado head Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - Peace RevolutionOn Oct 16 I moved into a rented suite in a Penthouse apartment overlooking Ibirapuera Park, the central park of Sao Paulo, Brazil. It was so exciting to be back in Brasil, after 6 months in Canada, which was rapidly turning to winter, so every day and every night was filled with activity and exploration of my new neighbourhood called Vila Clementino, which is built on the hills overlooking Moema, probably the most popular section in all of the city because it’s the only large area of flat ground.

Finally one evening, after going out about dozen nights in a row to learn about my new surroundings, I was determined to stay in and read but for some odd reason, at about 10:30 PM I started looking from my balcony to see if the pizza place was still open, which it was, however since I thought they were open till midnight, I didn’t arrive until just after 11 to learn that they were closed. About 11:11 PM a Brazilian dude who had just finished his meal, intervened on my half to allow me service. We sat together and talked, then when they closed, some 30 minutes later he asked me if I’d like to see his house, which was for sale. Sure let’s do it, I proclaimed, as I felt comfortable with this Dude from the start.

It turns out that I met the most amazing friend, on Nov, 11, at 11:11 on a street called Avenida Onze de Junho, which translates to Ave 11th of June. It actually wasn’t until the next day that I realized all these 11/11 anomalies but after spending 3 or 4 hours in the company of my new-found friend, named Marcos Claudino da Silva, the prior evening and having been intrigued by his amazing history, plus the fact that we were both the same age, and both of us had recently returned to Brazil. I went directly back to his house the following evening, before dark and told him that I wanted to provide assistance in helping him fulfil his vision because I thought then and still think now, that it’s the best idea I’d ever heard for making the world a better place.

Marcos Claudino da Silva is an singer/songwriter extraordinaire! His project is called “Peace Revolution” and it’s 12 original tracks of fusion of Samba, Rock and Reggae. Please check-out his website and listen to his music.

I’m Alive Brasil

Andres Levin, Caetano Veloso and Lenine

On the first day the Rainforest Alliance released “I’m Alive” it became the theme song for Wild Orchid Brazil. Our minds were blown by Gisele Bündchen saying; “the time for sustainable forestry in Brazil has arrived”. We felt as though she was speaking directly to us and we feel compelled to answer back – we hear you!

The Floresta da Tijuca Sessions

In a unique collaboration produced by Andres Levin, world-renowned musical artists Caetano Veloso and Lenine, Criolo, Emicida, Pretinho da Serrinha and Sistah Mo Respect along with many other celebrated Brasilian musicians and filmmakers spent three days in Rio de Janeiro’s Floresta da Tijuca, part of Parque Nacional da Tijuca (that supported the project by offering its landscapes to film) creating “I’m Alive” a multimedia expression of our relationship to nature filmed, composed and recorded in the rainforest.

I'm Alive Brasil -creditsCreated by: Andres Levin for Content-OS

Composed by: Caetano Veloso, Lenine, Criolo, Emicida, Pretinho da Serrinha, Rogê, Sistah Mo Repect, Tom Veloso, Júlia Mestre, José Ibarra, Andres Levin and Jorge Drexler

Film Produced by: Paula Lavigne (UNS Produções Filmes),

Directed by: Fernando Young, Paula Lavigne and Andres Levin,

Executive Producers: Larry Lunt and Andres Levin

Featuring: Gisele Bünchen, Caetano Veloso, Lenine, Criolo, Emicida, Pretinho da Serrinha, Sistah Mo Respec, Tom Veloso, Júlia Mestre, José Ibarra, Chico Chagas and Paulo Braga

Introducing Pedrinho da Serrinha

Special Appearance By:
Andres Levin
Alan Gonzaga
Ana Costa
Ávaro dos Santos Carneiro
Cicelle Alexandre
Darelly Caldeira Sette
Deborah Cheyne
Deisiane Conceição de Jesus
Diogo Carvalho Da Silva
Eduardo Louro
Pedro Pablo Monnerat
Gabriel Moura
Geovana Candelária
Juliany Rodrigues
Márcio Vinícius Conceição
Jorge Quininho
Rúbia Siqueira
Thais Batista de Macedo
Thiaguinho da Serrinha
Vinícius Conceição Martins

Additional Recording: Kassin, Thomas Barthlett, Pedro Sá, Cesinha Santos

Strings Arranged by: Stephen Barber
Recorded by: Pedro Pablo Monnerat at Kassin’s studio Rio
Recorded by: Ray Aldaco Sticky Audio NYC

Mixed by: Pat Dillet
Mastered by: Tom Coyne – Sterling Sound
Adaptation by: Arto Lindsay


Directed by: Fernando Young, Paula Lavigne, Andres Levin,
Edited by: Henrique Alqualo
Color by: Pedro Conforti (Brasil),

Trailer edited by: Joaquin Portocarero
Trailer Color by Roman Hankewycz Harbor Film

Production Coordination: Andrea Franco
Video Coordinator:Henrique Alqualo
Communications: Tino Monetti
Assistant Director: Danilo Watanabe
Brasil Production: Sissi Abreu
Production/Sound: Pierre Chêne
Video Assistant: Carolina Nunes
Security: Betinho Texeira
2nd Unit Camera Operator: Alexandre Ramos
Logger: Antônio Equi
1º Assistant Camera: Felipe Lima (Ovelha), Antoine Nicolas
2º Assistant Camera: Pedro Koeler
Sound: Fred Massine
Electric: Marcílio Nascimento
Assistant Electric: Anderson Luiz Viana
Machines: Paulo Fernando Martins (Doca)
Roadie: Luciano Da Silva
Local production and location directors: NOO magazine

Transportation: André
Catering: Art in Rio, by Andrea Cristina Oliveira en Pedro Kemel
Dressing Room Trailers: Claudio and Renata Roizenblit “Shimoo”
Transport: Oxê Locação de Veículos, by Gilberto Brito
Generator: Ismail
Drone: Manjubinha Filmes (Rodrigo Thomé, Rodrigo Figueiredo and Rodrigo Cebrian
Van Equipment: Manoel & Reinaldo Borges
Restaurant: Restaurante da Praça. by Marinho
Chargers: MG7, by Ronildo Gama
HT Radios: HT Rio Loc (José Eduardo Martins and Juliana Porto)
Location: Parque Nacional da Tijuca
Location Scout: André Neves
Location consultants: NOO TV
Park Monitors: Alex Barroso da Silva, Gilvan Alves Vieira and Peterson de Almeida
Park Sub Boss: Carlos Henrique Fernandes
Leasing Consultant: André Neves
Communications Advisor PNT: Júlia Barroso

Content-OS team: Jenna Maranga, Neal Sokol

Special Thanks:
Zeca Veoloso, Rowan Finnegan, Shure Microphones, Apogee, AEA Ribbon Microphones, Sterling Sound, Harbor, Sticky Audio, Tag Gross, Armonia, Gustavo Borner, Justin Moshkevich, Michael Murphree, Mariana Rolim, and Achy Obejas.

Producer, Emicida: Fióti
Producer, Criolo: Beatriz Berjeaut/ Assistant: Giovanna Scarano
Producer, Pretinho da Serrinha: Bruno Rodrigues
Producer, Lenine: KK Mamoni
Producer, Sistah: Laís Sérgio

Wild Orchid Ideas

Mission of the Wild Orchid Project

Generate, provide and disseminate information and environmental studies for sustainable development of Wild Orchid Conservation Programs, with revenue generating business models, from sales of digital media, empowered by Social Activism.

Wild Orchid intends to become an organization in the Eco-Index® – which encourages information sharing and collaboration among conservationists working to conserve biodiversity and advance sustainable development in the Americas.

Wild Orchid Ideas


Generate, provide and disseminate information and environmental studies for sustainable development of Wild Orchid Conservation Programs, with revenue generating business models, from sales of digital media, empowered by Social Activism.

Develop a Crowd source funded project: Conservation of wild orchid, in the Atlantic Forest of South America.

Wild Orchid Ideas is project driven, and designed for social change. Raising awareness by using social media to collaborate with strategic partners. Saving the world’s most vulnerable flowers, while at the same time causing a new type of sustainable industry. Leveraging the value of aesthetic beauty of wild orchid, for deriving revenue from digital media.

Initially 2 websites designed, one for raising funding and the other, a Wiki (open source community) for classifying orchid


We also registered a Domain name for creating a Non-profit organization –

Wild Orchid Brazil

Wild Orchid Brazil


Orchid Pornography - Orchid Porn
Orchid Pornography

Happy Birthday Canada! We stand on guard for thee…. here in Brazil (that is).  I will always love Canada but prefer living in Brazil.

Silicon Palms is now working on something unique that I’d like to share with you.

Over a year ago, I was presented with an opportunity to design a resilient community project for a magnificent mountaintop property, on an organic farm in Aguas Mornas, Santa Catarina. That’s in the rain forest (Floresta Atlantica) of Southern Brazil (with a view of Florianopolis and the Sea).

The property owner and I devised a strategy to focus on “Sustainable Forestry” for the revenue, to develop the project, simply because it’s the best use of the land but we stumbled upon an idea for disruptive innovation in the marketing.

The idea is to take the best thing about the rainforest, use digital media methods to monetize it into online content, and social activism to bring it to life as an organization.

The Plan is called Wild Orchid Brazil – Here’s the Orchid Idea Pitch

A Canadian Expat connected with a USA Expat, both were living in Brazil for over a dozen years each and never previously met. Together they devised a plan so truly compelling that anyone that heard the pitch would immediately endorse the orchid idea and at the very least give a recommendation to every single friend and family, without thinking twice about it.

Wild Orchid Brazil
Wild Orchid Brazil

The 2 Expats spent a year brainstorming and test pitching the orchid idea with big thinkers. It had to be sustainable revenue generated from the 10 acre property and embrace Social Activism for Environmental Protection and research into sustainable forestry projects. Amongst which is the conservation of Wild Orchid, which inhabit the property in healthy numbers. The orchid ides started flowing, which gave rise to the concept of “Orchid Porn” for Social Media (Facebook friendly) to fight the natural enemy of all flowers – Geo-Engineering and/or Chemtrail spraying (aka Solar Radiation Management).

We are now building our launch team for crowd source funding, the proceeds of which will be used for Grant Writing.

  • Sustainable forestry in Brazil is our Plan
  • The Wild Orchid is our Meme
  • Social Activism is our Method
  • Save the Rainforest is our Message
  • Champion the Wild Orchid is our Mission.

Promote the wild orchid as a Super Hero of air quality and the canary in the coal mine for planet earth.

We need your help! Please join our campaign. Your name amongst our members makes a big difference. Since our goal is to reach 1 million members within 1 year but we need your help to tell other people. We want you to love the Wild Orchid Project, so you’ll gladly tell all your friends. Our hope is that you’ll add your energy into helping us grow the most unique resilient community on the Internet.

You could own your own wild orchid in Brazil, with 24/7 web cam and dedicated web page (Facebook friendly), containing the Google Earth link co-ordinates, or visit the research facility as a special guest. Wild Orchid Brazil is a place and project like none other and membership has privilege.

Open Source systems enable collaboration, management and reporting to the community.

The orchid idea is pure innovation in the world of environmental protection projects.

Please subscribe to this Channel and join or Community at Wild Orchid Info.

Brazil Poker Pro

BPP-250x250.jpgIn the country of Brazil the supreme court ruled that Poker is a game of skill, and is not classified as a game of chance like, say, Bingo. For this reason there are legal poker rooms throughout the country and online poker may be growing faster in Brazil than any other market on earth, which has prompted many of the biggest online poker companies to sponsor top players and spend allot of money in marketing and advertising their brands inside Brazil.

Brazil Poker Pro was launched to get twitter followers andprovide poker information in Portuguese and in a short few months the site has grown in popularity and created a buzz on Twitter and Facebook amongst Brazilian poker aficionados, some relationships with followed and strategic partnerships were formed and now less than 4 months later is generating revenue and has a promising future to become a key voice in the poker community of Brazil.

The main author of Brazil Poker Pro is a an authority on the topic, extremely passionate about poker, has won some significant poker tournaments both online and in the big poker rooms of Sao Paulo but most importantly he’s very prolific and likes to publish a new story every day, as well as Tweet to his large group of followers and friends and Facebook. We’re seeking more strategic partners and thinking about adding another author, once the traffic reaches 1,000 visitors per day. Also, we’d like to hire an assistant to help us keep up with the social networking.

Nowadays with the built-in translation tools found on Google chrome, or available at the click of a mouse to Babelfish etc… the information on Brazil Poker Pro offers value to any poker player, no matter the language they speak.

Enhanced by Zemanta

Casino Beach Launch

Surfs up PromotionReefer Poker Announces Surf’s Up Promotion to Celebrate Launch of the best online slots casino
Malta, June 29, 2010 –, in partnership with, has announced the launch of their new online casino partner;
As part of the jg wentworth launch promo for this new Real Time Gaming casino, the group of sites, which includes the social network, has created a promotion that has players visiting all of their sites on a hunt for branded surfboards.

Continue reading “Casino Beach Launch”

Open Melody

melody-logo-mark220.pngHaving been a huge fan of Movable Type personal publishing platform for so many years, I was thrilled to learn that MT founders had inspired and empowered an Open Source software called Open Melody. Now there’s a group of web developers joining forces to collectively foster the evolution of a better content management system.
To test the software I installed a sandbox on, connected my web server to the Github (for social coding), joined the mailing list and community, I’m set-up to add my contributions to this great work in progress, while simultaneously developing a “Rio de Janeiro Travel Blog” called Macumba Beach.
About Melody;
Open MelodyMelody is an open source content management and publishing system derived from the popular blogging tool Movable Type. Melody is for those who find value in belonging to, supporting and contributing to a community of helpful, passionate and devoted users, but it is also for people who want a secure, proven and high quality publishing environment for their personal web site or their business.
Melody is actively maintained by a community of passionate individuals committed to the following goals:

  • Make personal publishing easier and more enjoyable.
  • Create the most progressive and innovative personal publishing application available.
  • Inspire a thriving community of users, developers and contributors.

Contributions to Melody’s code base is held in trust by the Open Melody Software Group, a non-profit created expressly for this purpose.

Reblog this post [with Zemanta]